To see how thoroughly Pittman dominated targets, you only have to look at his teammates. The former second-round pick was held back by Carson Wentz and the fact that the Colts only threw 521 passes last year. Michael Pittman took a leap in Year 2, and I don't think he's done yet. I'm projecting Metcalf for a career-high 8.3 targets per game in 2022. Those are exactly the types of players you should be targeting in the middle rounds. That creates a value situation where Metcalf, with one or two things going right, could break into target monster territory this season and smash his ADP. And if nothing else, Metcalf's Seahawks are even more likely to run more plays because they were last in the league in 2021. Still, all this uncertainty is suppressing his ADP. And Metcalf isn't topping a 25% target share as long as Lockett is still there. Because if it's a Pete Carroll offense, it's unlikely to be pass-heavy, especially with Geno Smith or Drew Lock under center. Or for Tyler Lockett to see his role shrink. Metcalf may need for the Seahawks to acquire Baker Mayfield if he's going to make that leap this year. Of course, that may not be too comforting, since Wilson is no longer on the team. The other 13 games of the season he averaged 8.1 targets per game, just as he did in 2020. Wilson suffered that injury in Week 5 and Metcalf only saw 23 targets from Weeks 5-8. Metcalf actually took a step back in terms of targets per game, but that can mostly be explained by Russell Wilson's finger injury. For that reason and many more, Chase and Jefferson sit in a tier of their own in Dynasty leagues. It's hard to expect a massive leap in Year 2 with Tee Higgins on the roster, but I have Chase projected for 8.6 targets per game, and it's very easy to see a ceiling in the 9-10 range very soon. There won't be as many big plays on a year-to-year basis, which will mean more plays and targets as the Bengals need more plays to score. Chase scored five touchdowns of more than 50 yards last year and another three that were 30-50 yards. For what it's worth, Chase averaged 8.75 targets per game in those four playoff games.Īnother thing that will contribute to more volume is the efficiency regression we should expect from both Chase and Burrow. And there were signs down the stretch and in the playoffs that the Bengals may throw more moving forward. Had they met that league-median number, Chase's 23% target share would have translated to more targets per game, even if it would have been a small boost. The Bengals attempted 555 passes in 2022, 38 attempts below the league median. As with Cooks, some of that could come because of what his team does. It's funny to think that Chase has room to grow, but considering he's already one of the most talented wide receivers in the league, I would definitely expect him to earn a larger number of targets in the future. Metcalf and Chase fell short of the target mark, but I'm leaving them on the list for this year because there is plenty of room for growth.
McLaurin and Jeudy took a step back, and I'm losing confidence they'll ever join the ranks.
Cooks set a career high with 8.4 targets per game and could very well go higher in 2022 if the Texans aren't one of the bottom three teams in offensive plays. Brown made a leap as well, but injuries and partial games hid that fact. Jefferson and Johnson were both around 10 targets per game, clearly establishing themselves as target monsters. Before we get into the next class of target hogs, let's see how last year's group did. I'd like to tell you Cooper Kupp was on the list as well, but we didn't know about Kupp and Matthew Stafford's breakfast dates at the time of publication. Last year in this column I highlighted eight receivers who I thought could make the leap: Justin Jefferson, Diontae Johnson, Ja'Marr Chase, Brandin Cooks, Jerry Jeudy, DK Metcalf, Terry McLaurin and A.J. What we're interested in is finding the next group of guys who will demand the football. They were the guys who won leagues last year for Fantasy managers. Now, everyone already knows who the current target monsters are. I'd suggest chasing targets instead of lightning. Or you need to catch lightning in a bottle with efficiency. Said another way, if you want wide receivers who will help you dominate your Fantasy leagues, you need wide receivers who are going to dominate targets on their own team. Mike Evans and Tyler Lockett were the only receivers in the top 20 with fewer than 120 targets. That was because of radical, unsustainable efficiency, and Samuel's rushing production.
Deebo Samuel and Ja'Marr Chase were the only wide receivers to finish as top-eight options with fewer than 159 targets last year. Targets are king for wide receivers in Fantasy Football, especially if you play in a PPR league.
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